Big Bets and Black Swans 2014: A Presidential Briefing Book by Ted Piccone,Steven Pifer,Thomas Wright

By Ted Piccone,Steven Pifer,Thomas Wright

President Obama has simply 3 years left in place of work to outline his legacy in global affairs. he is dealing with a few serious challenges—the ongoing conflict in Syria, the Iran nuclear negotiations, an enigmatic North Korea and different major crises in global affairs. The president's advisors are busy devising coverage concepts geared toward grappling with those thorny matters. From those, the president needs to make a decision which priorities to pursue and the way to top workout U.S. strength and effect to regulate and form the worldwide order.

This publication offers a collection of coverage research and proposals from The international coverage students on the Brookings establishment. Designed to supply the White residence with cutting edge and actionable coverage projects, the publication is built as a sequence of memos to President Obama. This yr, the memos are divided into 5 categories:

• enormous Bets are concerns the place the president may still ponder making an investment his energy, time and status in significant efforts that could have a transformational impression on the US and the area. • Double Downs are derived from the massive Bets from final year's options that the president may still redouble his efforts on.

• Black Swans are these low-probability yet high-impact occasions which could divert the president and his administration's larger reasons, reminiscent of dramatic unfavorable occasions that he'll are looking to take steps upfront to prevent or to mitigate their consequences.

• Nightmares are occasions that glance much more likely than a Black Swan and will end up fairly problematical for U.S. pursuits and the worldwide order, and for which the management should still prepare.

• Holds are up to date coverage thoughts to stick the direction on ways instructed final year.

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